2024 NCAA B1G Confidence Picks
The 2024 NCAA Wrestling tournament should be absolutely wild. This year seems to have more parity than we’ve seen in the last several years. By my count, I have only one weight where I believe I know exactly what will happen. Even at 197, where we have a solid favorite in Aaron Brooks (a guy going for his 4th seems like a solid bet, although it seemed that way last year also), on the other side of the bracket is Trent Hidlay, who could absolutely spoil Brooks plans and win it all himself. We’ve had more surprising outcomes is what I’m saying. So for fun here, I thought I’d put together a list of my top 10 confidence picks in B1G wrestlers who could win an NCAA title. This won’t necessarily be a B1G guy at each weight class, because maybe I don’t have any confidence in a B1G wrestler to win at a particular weight. In fact, there are a couple of weights where I have more than one B1G ranked. We’ll start at 10, and work our way to the most confident pick. Let’s begin.
Honorable Mentions: A couple of shoutouts to some wrestlers who won’t be mentioned here, but I wanted to recognize. The first honorable mention is any B1G 125-pound wrestler. Literally, anyone can win this weight, which is why it’s tough to have a tremendous amount of confidence in any of them. Can you see a world where Patrick McKee goes on a run and wins it all? Absolutely. Penn State true freshmen win titles all the time, so Davis could absolutely get it done. Could Drake Ayala put it together and win an NCAA title the year after Spencer Lee finishes up? Sure! 125 is Kevin Garnett. Anything is possible.
Beau Bartlett should get a shoutout here. He was the top-ranked 141 for most of the year, but I don’t have enough confidence in his offensive output to be able to put it together and get it done here. 141 is too tough, and you’ll see later on that I have two other guys I’m more confident in at the weight, but let’s give him an honorable mention here. Additionally, at 141 I’m putting in Sergio Lemley as an honorable mention. That guy just keeps getting better and has shown he’s as dangerous as anyone, so he’s getting a shoutout as well.
Edmond Ruth absolutely has a path. The bottom side of the 174-pound bracket is undoubtedly easier than the top side, and in general, guys named Ed Ruth tend to wrestle really well at this tournament. Is it super likely, no. Whoever comes through on the top side should be the favorite going into the NCAA finals, but Edmond is stingy enough and good enough to get it done if the top side is just spent after going through that gauntlet.
10. Matt Ramos - Purdue, 125. I just have confidence in a guy who has been number one in the country at the wildest weight more than anyone else has this season. He’s dropped some matches here and there, but I’ve seen this guy come through on the big stage before. I know he’s the four seed, and conventional wisdom would say to pick the 1 or 3 seeds from the same conference, but I’m not doing that. I’m riding with my dude Ramos. It’s tough to have any level of confidence at a weight that has been completely crazy all year long, but the boilermaker is the one I have the most confidence in on Monday, March 18th.
9. Austin Gomez - Michigan, 149. This is where the questions begin, but again, this is a confidence ranking system. Do you have confidence in a B1G 184 to win it? Me either. How about 133? Not really. Not as much as I believe AG has a shot to win it all at 149. He’s in his final season of college wrestling and I believe he’s going to leave it all out there. Winning an NCAA title is what he came back to do, and he’s absolutely dangerous enough and capable enough to do it. I mean, we just watched this guy beat Nick Lee! Shouldn’t that count for something? He’s as dangerous as it gets and can win any match he’s in. He has a solid road to the finals and as a result, he’s someone I have confidence in.
8. Carter Starocci - Penn State, 174. A couple weeks ago, I’d have had Carter in the top three here. Clearly, a lot has happened since then though. The injury sustained during the closing seconds of the Edinboro match changed the fortunes of so many wrestlers. Also, he has an insanely tough road being the ninth seed. He’ll have to beat Mekhi Lewis, but he would have likely had to do that anyway. He’ll just have him likely on Friday morning rather than Saturday night. That being said, I still have seen enough of Carter to know that he’s not going down without a fight. This guy is literally preparing to fight people in a cage for money, so he’s the guy who I think will fight hard enough to get it done. Carter looked healthy when walking around at B1Gs, but we didn’t get to see him wrestle. Regardless, the extra time off couldn’t have hurt him, and he’ll be prepared and have a game plan to get things done. I have a huge amount of confidence in even an 85% healthy Starocci to win it all.
7. Mitchell Messenbrink - Penn State, 165. I would have Mitch higher in this if there weren’t two other NCAA Champs in his weight class. Thankfully for Mitch, those two dudes are on the top side of the bracket, so he’ll likely only need to wrestle one of them. He’s shown all season that he’s a super freak, and can buzzsaw through anyone. His pace is insane, his attack rate and variety are nuts, and his confidence seems to be on another level. Again, I know Keegan O’Toole is great, as is David Carr, but I believe in Mitch. I have confidence. He can do it! Also, I have less confidence in Julian Ramirez of Cornell, the three seed on his side of the bracket. He should have a clear path to the finals, and at that point, anything can happen.
6. Real Woods - Iowa, 141. He’s been so close so many times, and this is it for him. This is the last chance. Things just got real (pun heavily intended). A theme you’ll start to pick up on is my level of confidence in guys who have a variety of ways to score is higher than the guys who win close matches over and over. Real can score and is dangerous all over the mat, and that paired with his final chance makes me think, he’ll be able to get it done. I like his road, and in a weight where everyone has a couple losses, Real is the sort of guy who would show up at the right time and put together a nice run.
5. Ridge Lovett - Nebraska, 149. Lovett has been as close to perfect as you can get without being perfect. He’s beaten just about everyone at the weight, and just barely lost to Parco, which is not a bad loss. Again, Lovett has so many ways to win matches. You want to go on your feet? He can do that. Riding time points? Yeah, Ridge is good on top and bottom. He’s a cool customer, he’s been to the finals before, he feels like it’s his time. I have slightly more confidence in Ridge than I do in Gomez, mostly because he’s beaten Gomez twice this year, but again, anything can happen.
4. Jesse Mendez - Ohio State, 141. Mendez has looked so damn good all year. He only has the two losses all season, one to Cole Matthews and one to Beau Bartlett (which he avenged in the B1G finals). He’s absolutely deserving of the 1 seed and should be the favorite. The only reason he isn’t higher than 4 is that this weight has a lot of parity and there are too many guys that I could be talked into getting it done. Mendez though is the guy I have the most confidence in. He has looked excellent since moving up to 141, so I’m not concerned with his weight being an issue, and he can score in so many ways. Jesse is a bad dude, and he’s ready to get it done.
3. Levi Haines - Penn State, 157. This weight class is pretty wild, and there are a couple guys who could get it done. Or at least that’s how I felt a couple weeks ago. Since then, Levi Haines has looked really good and has absolutely earned the number one seed. He’s been ranked number one all year long, has beaten enough of the top guys at the weight, and can wrestle exceptionally well in all positions. Plus he gets to train with the rest of the PSU guys, so you know he’ll be as prepared as anyone. My only real concern is around his weight management, but he appears to have that under control, and should have a solid path to the finals. Haines is ready to collect his first NCAA title, and I expect it to happen.
2. Aaron Brooks - Penn State, 197. Brooks is going for his 4th NCAA championship, and possibly his second one over Trent Hidlay. That’s the expected finals matchup, and I sure hope we get it. Brooks has been as dominant as anyone has been for years, and should very likely win the Hodge, assuming he is able to get this done. I’ll never forget listening to him wrestle in the B1G finals and hearing him club Kaleb Romero last season. It was so much more physical than comes through the television. He’s been a monster at 197, and I would have him probably at 1, but Trent Hidlay is also a monster who has looked awesome at 197. This is the match I want more than anything else, but I still will go into it expecting Aaron to get it done.
1. Greg Kerkvliet - Penn State, 285. He’s a super freak and has destroyed everyone this whole year. Really he destroyed everyone not named Mason Parris last season as well, so two full years of being in complete control of everyone. He wrestles like a 174, but add 100 pounds and he’s 8 feet tall (I don’t know how tall he is, but he’s enormous). No disrespect to Wyatt, Yonger, or Cohlton, but I feel like one of these is different from the others. Greg Kerkvliet is the guy I have the most confidence in winning an NCAA title from the B1G this year.